Gold continues to show strong technical performance within a well-defined uptrend, driven by a combination of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension.

Based on Elliott Wave analysis across both the weekly and daily timeframes, gold remains in the midst of a powerful wave (3) advance, with signs pointing toward a short-term continuation to new highs, followed by a medium-term corrective phase.

Weekly Chart Overview For GOLD– Extended Advance Within Major Wave (3)

Weekly Chart Overview For GOLD– Extended Advance Within Major Wave (3)

On the weekly timeframe, gold has been rallying steadily since the January 2024 low near $1810.49, marking the beginning of a larger-degree impulsive wave (3).

Wave Structure Breakdown:

  • Wave (1) began the bullish cycle in early 2024.
  • Wave (2) followed with a standard correction.
  • Wave (3) has since extended strongly, now unfolding its internal five-wave structure:
    • Sub-wave 3 peaked near $2790.23.
    • Sub-wave 4 corrected to around $2536.85.
    • Gold is currently in sub-wave 5, which has lifted prices above $3300.

What’s Next?

As wave (3) nears completion, a corrective wave (4) is expected to follow.

This retracement may pull prices back to the $3000–$3100 zone before the final leg wave (5) of the major cycle begins.

Daily Chart Overview For GOLD – A New Impulse Begins with a Leading Diagonal

Daily Chart Overview For GOLD – A New Impulse Begins with a Leading Diagonal

Zooming into the daily chart, gold shows the early stages of a new impulsive sequence.

  • Following the sharp correction that bottomed near $3120.68 (wave ii), gold initiated a new upward movement.
  • This rally unfolded as a leading diagonal, forming wave (1) – a common structure at the start of new impulses.
  • It was followed by a brief pullback in wave (2), which appears to have completed, paving the way for a strong wave (3) to begin.

Near-Term Outlook:

  • Wave (3) is typically the strongest wave in an impulse and is just getting underway.
  • A breakout above the previous high of $3500 is anticipated, with targets between $3700–$3800 in the coming weeks.
  • This move would complete the higher-degree wave (3) seen on the weekly chart.

Macroeconomic Context:

The bullish momentum is aligned with broader economic factors, including:

  • Persistent inflationary pressures across the U.S. and Eurozone, despite ongoing monetary tightening.
  • Increased gold purchases by global central banks, particularly in Asia.
  • Escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, reinforcing gold’s safe-haven appeal.
  • Volatile U.S. Treasury yields, prompting portfolio shifts into precious metals.

Investment Takeaways:

  • Short-term traders may find favorable upside potential as wave (3) progresses.
  • Medium- to long-term investors are advised to wait for the upcoming wave (4) correction to re-enter at more attractive price levels.

Conclusion For GOLD:

Gold remains in a strong impulsive rally, with technical and macroeconomic factors supporting further gains in the short term.

However, as the larger-degree wave (3) approaches its peak, investors should prepare for a likely wave (4) correction, offering strategic opportunities to accumulate positions ahead of the final wave (5) advance.

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