Key Points:

1. Gold prices rise as a safe haven amid economic concerns.
2. U.S. labor data and dollar strength impact gold’s performance.
3. Analysts anticipate critical reports to shape gold’s near-term direction.

Gold Forecast

The gold chart reflects the formation of a corrective wave of the (WXY) type within a one-hour time frame.

The movement began at 2596.17 and the first wave ended at the peak of 2665.35.

This was followed by a corrective decline towards 2614.54, which serves as the “Invalidation” level, nullifying the scenario if broken.

The current price action is in a corrective wave (B) within the channel, expected to target levels around 2700.

The chart indicates a minor termination at 2662.21, supporting the completion of wave (C) in the downward direction before the anticipated final upward movement.

The 2614.54 level is considered a critical threshold for this scenario; breaking it signals a change in direction.

Current trading strategies rely on waiting for a clear breakout of wave (B) or a rebound from support to complete the expected wave (C), with targets set at 2700 on the upside.

Gold News

• Gold prices increased on Wednesday as demand for the precious metal as a safe haven grew, supported by investor concerns over the trade policies of the U.S. president-elect and potential economic emergency declarations to impose broad tariffs.
• The ADP monthly report showed that the U.S. private sector added 122,000 jobs in December, below the expected 136,000 jobs. Initial jobless claims also fell by 10,000 to 201,000, marking an 11-month low, indicating a resilient labor market.
• Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting revealed concerns about inflation and the impact of the president-elect’s policies on trade and immigration. Federal Reserve members anticipate a slow approach to lowering interest rates, with inflation projected to reach 2% by 2027.
• Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,679.8 per ounce. However, the gains were limited due to the U.S. dollar’s rise by 0.4% and Treasury yields hitting a nine-month high, reflecting stronger investor confidence in the U.S. economy
• U.S. services sector data exceeded expectations, reinforcing forecasts that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates for a prolonged period. This exerted pressure on gold prices.
• Analysts noted that the continued strength of the dollar could weaken gold prices. However, any decline in U.S. macroeconomic data this week might support gold prices if expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut by 2025 increase.
• Investors await the U.S. Labor Department’s monthly jobs report, expected to show the addition of 155,000 jobs in December. This report is crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. economy and future monetary policy directions.
• Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF, remained unchanged at 871.08 metric tons, the lowest level since December 19, reflecting cautious investor sentiment ahead of key economic data releases.