Key Points
- AUD/USD has established a new green wave (1) label within its developing recovery.
- A corrective decline toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement is projected.
- The updated invalidation threshold has risen to 0.69543.
Australian Dollar Rate: AUD/USD traded at 0.70144 at 8:45 a.m. New York time. The four-hour chart records a daily high of 0.70246 and low of 0.70018, against an opening rate of 0.70053.
AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis
The recovery outlined in the November 4 Australian dollar outlook has developed a clearer internal structure, with green wave (1) now labeled at the latest rebound peak.
The updated count retains red wave B at the preceding corrective low, while the blue projection anticipates green wave (2) retracing toward Fibonacci 50%.
A subsequent advance remains favored, potentially bringing the 0.70432 upside reference back into focus. However, the projected pullback and following extension have yet to be confirmed.
Technical Analysis for November 5, 2026
- Structure: Green (1) labeled; green (2) projected.
- Fibonacci: 50% corrective retracement.
- Upside Reference: 0.70432.
- Invalidation: 0.69543, raised from 0.68941.
Trader's Question: Does the new wave (1) label confirm that the next rally has begun?
Not conclusively. The proposed wave (2) correction remains ahead, and its development will help determine whether the upward sequence can continue.