USDCAD Price Forecast for October 4, 2026
USDCAD is trading near 1.4251 on the 4-hour chart, maintaining its broader bullish structure inside a well-defined ascending channel. The Elliott Wave count shows an incomplete five-wave motive sequence, with waves i, ii and iii already established and wave iv completing near 1.41546. The subsequent advance suggests that wave v is developing at a higher degree.
USDCAD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave (iii) Remains in Development
The internal structure of wave v is particularly important. The advance from 1.41546 appears to have completed wave (i) near 1.42629, followed by a corrective decline in wave (ii). Price is now recovering from the lower boundary of the rising channel, supporting the view that wave (iii) of v may be starting.
This creates a nested bullish structure: wave (iii) is expected to unfold inside wave v of the larger impulse. Since third waves typically represent the strongest portion of an impulsive sequence, a sustained advance above 1.42629 would provide important confirmation that wave (iii) is extending and could open the way toward the 1.4300 area and above.
The rising channel remains technically significant. Holding above the wave (ii) region preserves the immediate bullish count, while a decline below 1.41546, the origin of the current wave v structure, would invalidate this interpretation and require a reassessment of the larger count.
- Primary Elliott Wave outlook: Bullish, with wave (iii) of v expected to drive the next phase of the advance.