AUDUSD Forecast

AUD/USD remains under bearish pressure on the 4-hour chart, trading near 0.6957 after reaching 0.69037. The Elliott Wave count shows that the decline from the wave ii high developed through a complete five-wave impulse, labeled ①-②-③-④-⑤. Wave ⑤ terminated at 0.69037, completing the larger-degree wave iii and opening the door for a corrective wave iv recovery.

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave iv Corrective Recovery

The completion of wave iii is supported by the five-wave subdivision visible from the wave ii high. The initial rebound from 0.69037 is labeled wave Ⓐ, representing the first leg of the developing wave iv correction. Price is now expected to retrace in wave Ⓑ before another advance in wave Ⓒ completes the corrective structure.

At this stage, the developing A-B-C sequence favors a zigzag-type correction, although the pattern should remain provisional until its internal structure is complete. The chart projects wave iv toward approximately 0.6990–0.7000, an area that could become important resistance.

The broader trend remains bearish. Once wave iv is complete, the Elliott Wave structure favors the start of wave v, which would resume the larger decline and could drive AUD/USD below 0.69037 toward fresh lows.

• Primary outlook: corrective upside in wave iv before the broader bearish trend resumes through wave v.

AUD/USD is trading near 0.6974, extending its recovery from the 0.69037 low. Buyers have regained short-term momentum, but sellers remain in control of the broader four-hour structure following the decline from 0.71404. For now, the recovery looks corrective rather than the start of a confirmed bullish reversal.

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave iv Recovery

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the AUD/USD Price Forecast remains consistent with a bearish impulsive structure. Wave iii appears to have terminated at 0.69037 after unfolding through five internal waves 1-2-3-4-5. The clear five-wave subdivision and strong downside displacement favor an impulse interpretation, with no convincing evidence of a diagonal or wave failure.

Price is now developing corrective Wave iv. The recovery could extend toward 0.6995–0.7000, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement creates an important technical resistance zone. The internal structure of Wave iv remains incomplete, making it premature to classify the correction as a zigzag, flat, or complex combination.

AUD/USD Analysis: Support, Resistance and Alternative Scenario

The latest U.S. employment report provides a fundamental catalyst for the rebound. September payrolls increased by only 29,000 versus 90,000 expected, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. The softer report weakened the dollar and reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase in October.

The broader AUD/USD outlook remains bearish below 0.7000. Failure around this resistance would preserve the Wave iv scenario, with 0.69037 acting as key support. A subsequent break below that low would strengthen the case for Wave v and fresh downside levels. Conversely, sustained strength above the projected Wave iv resistance would weaken the immediate bearish count and require a reassessment of the wave structure.