USDJPY Price Forecast for October 4, 2026
USD/JPY is trading near 157.86 on the 4-hour chart after failing to extend the recovery above 158.458. The broader Elliott Wave structure suggests that the advance to 159.038 completed wave ⑤ of (c), followed by a bearish reversal. The current price action favors further downside as sellers regain control below the recent corrective high.
USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis and Market Outlook
The decline from 159.038 appears to be developing as a new impulsive sequence. Wave i was followed by a corrective wave ii, which reached 158.458 before turning lower. This structure keeps the focus on the development of wave iii, with the chart projecting a move toward the 155.00–155.50 region.
The 156.80–157.00 area is particularly important. It previously acted as support, and another decisive break below this zone would strengthen the bearish wave iii scenario. The recent 156.377 low provides an additional structural level to monitor.
Resistance is concentrated around 158.00–158.46. As long as USD/JPY remains below the wave ii high at 158.458, the immediate Elliott Wave outlook remains bearish. A sustained move above that level would weaken the current wave iii interpretation and require reassessment of the short-term count.
- Primary outlook: Bearish, with the Elliott Wave structure favoring an extension lower toward the mid-155.00 region