Key Points
- EUR/USD extended its recovery to a new structural high at 1.12731.
- The revised count places blue wave i at the recent peak.
- A three-wave correction is developing before another potential advance.
EURUSD Rate: EUR/USD traded at 1.12186 at 9:08 a.m. New York time. The four-hour chart records a daily high of 1.12683 and low of 1.12127, against an opening rate of 1.12287.
EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis
The recovery extended beyond the high highlighted in the November 4 EURUSD forecast, prompting a revision of the developing wave structure.
The updated count identifies five completed red subdivisions within blue wave i, replacing the earlier interpretation that anticipated further development within blue wave iii.
Subsequent selling has established red waves A and B. The projected path now favors a further decline through red wave C to complete blue wave ii, followed by renewed appreciation.
The correction remains unfinished, while 1.11045 defines the current invalidation threshold.
Technical Analysis for November 5, 2026
- Wave Structure: Blue i provisionally complete.
- Current Correction: Red A–B formed; C projected.
- Structural High: 1.12731.
- Invalidation: 1.11045.
Trader's Question: Does the current decline invalidate the recovery scenario?
Not automatically. The revised structure anticipates a second-wave correction before another advance. Its completion requires confirmation from subsequent price action.