AUD/USD is trading near 0.6974, extending its recovery from the 0.69037 low. Buyers have regained short-term momentum, but sellers remain in control of the broader four-hour structure following the decline from 0.71404. For now, the recovery looks corrective rather than the start of a confirmed bullish reversal.
AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave iv Recovery
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the AUD/USD Price Forecast remains consistent with a bearish impulsive structure. Wave iii appears to have terminated at 0.69037 after unfolding through five internal waves 1-2-3-4-5. The clear five-wave subdivision and strong downside displacement favor an impulse interpretation, with no convincing evidence of a diagonal or wave failure.
Price is now developing corrective Wave iv. The recovery could extend toward 0.6995–0.7000, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement creates an important technical resistance zone. The internal structure of Wave iv remains incomplete, making it premature to classify the correction as a zigzag, flat, or complex combination.
AUD/USD Analysis: Support, Resistance and Alternative Scenario
The latest U.S. employment report provides a fundamental catalyst for the rebound. September payrolls increased by only 29,000 versus 90,000 expected, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. The softer report weakened the dollar and reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase in October.
The broader AUD/USD outlook remains bearish below 0.7000. Failure around this resistance would preserve the Wave iv scenario, with 0.69037 acting as key support. A subsequent break below that low would strengthen the case for Wave v and fresh downside levels. Conversely, sustained strength above the projected Wave iv resistance would weaken the immediate bearish count and require a reassessment of the wave structure.