Key Points
- AUD/USD has retreated after completing a provisional fourth-wave recovery.
- The updated Elliott Wave count places red wave 4 at the latest rebound peak.
- Further downside remains anticipated, with invalidation unchanged at 0.70246.
Australian Dollar Rate: AUD/USD traded at 0.68730 at 9:44 a.m. New York time. The four-hour chart records a daily high of 0.69309 and low of 0.68684, against an opening rate of 0.69265.
AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis
The corrective recovery anticipated in the November 9 Australian dollar analysis has developed into a labeled fourth-wave peak, followed by renewed selling.
The revised count retains red wave 3 at the previous structural low, while wave 4 now appears near the intervening recovery high.
The blue projection allows a brief rebound before another bearish extension, potentially completing red wave 5.
However, the recorded session low remains above 0.68543, leaving a fresh downside break unconfirmed.
Technical Analysis for November 10, 2026
- Trend: Bearish.
- Wave Structure: Red 4 provisionally complete; red 5 anticipated.
- Downside Reference: 0.68543.
- Invalidation: 0.70246.
Trader's Question: Has the latest decline confirmed a new bearish low?
Not yet. The session low of 0.68684 remains 14.1 pips above the previous structural reference, making further price development essential.