EUR/USD maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on the 4-hour chart, with the displayed price at 1.11788. The Elliott Wave count identifies green wave V and purple (v) at 1.11129, following the preceding five-wave decline. The subsequent recovery carries purple labels (0), (a), and (b), with wave (c) projected toward approximately 1.11700 before a stronger advance toward 1.13250. Since October 23, the displayed price has declined from 1.11996, but the bullish projection remains conditional rather than confirmed. The chart identifies 1.12695 as a further-upside reference. Holding above 1.11129 supports the recovery scenario, while a sustained break below that annotated invalidation level would undermine the proposed bullish structure.
Technical Summary of EUR/USD Price for October 26, 2026
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Trend: Bullish, conditional on support holding.
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Current Elliott Wave: Purple wave (c) projected following labeled (a) and (b).
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Key Support Levels: Approximately 1.11700 (projected); 1.11129 (invalidation).
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Key Resistance Levels: 1.12695 (annotated upside reference); approximately 1.13250 (projected).
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Next Price Target: Approximately 1.11700 corrective low, followed by 1.12695 and potentially 1.13250.
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Invalidation Level: 1.11129 (annotated).
Trader's Question: Can EUR/USD complete wave (c) before advancing toward 1.13250?
The projected dip near 1.11700 could precede a bullish recovery, but confirmation requires renewed strength through 1.12695.
EURUSD News for October 26, 2026: The euro faces two immediate challenges: deteriorating growth expectations and fiscal uncertainty. Slower eurozone activity could restrict the ECB's ability to raise interest rates, while pressure on French government bonds may increase regional risk premiums, weakening demand for euro-denominated assets. The dollar's relative strength reflects expectations that the Fed could maintain a restrictive policy stance. However, lower oil prices may ease US inflation expectations, potentially limiting further dollar appreciation.
Immediate market impact: EUR/USD retains a modest bearish bias if US yields remain comparatively attractive and European growth expectations deteriorate. The Dollar Index could benefit from this divergence.
