Key Points
- EUR/USD has retreated toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement following its recent advance.
- The Elliott Wave count continues to favor a developing bullish correction.
- Blue wave iii remains projected, with invalidation unchanged at 1.11045.
EURUSD Rate: EUR/USD traded at 1.11799 at 8:07 a.m. New York time. The four-hour chart records an intraday high of 1.12067 and low of 1.11752, against an opening rate of 1.11870.
EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis
The pullback anticipated in the November 2 EURUSD outlook has deepened toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, testing the developing recovery without invalidating its underlying wave count.
The updated chart retains blue waves i and ii, while the projected path continues to favor an upward extension into blue wave iii within the broader purple wave (c).
A renewed advance would bring the 1.12371 upside reference back into focus, followed potentially by the earlier 1.12695 wave high. However, the anticipated third-wave extension has yet to materialize.
Technical Analysis for November 3, 2026
- Trend: Bullish corrective outlook under pressure from a pullback.
- Wave Structure: Blue iii projected within purple (c).
- Fibonacci: 61.8% retracement region.
- Upside References: 1.12371 and 1.12695.
- Invalidation: 1.11045.
Trader's Question: Does reaching the 61.8% retracement confirm the next upward wave?
No. Fibonacci proximity identifies a potential reaction area, not a confirmed reversal. Further price development is needed to support the projected wave iii advance.