- AUD/USD’s revised count places wave 5 at 0.68941, replacing the previous expectation of further fifth-wave weakness.
- EUR/USD retains its recovery scenario above 1.11129, while GBP/USD retraces after reaching 1.33718.
- French fiscal concerns and stronger Chinese growth create different fundamental pressures across the three pairs.
Market News
Euro and Sterling: Relative Strength Matters
Reuters reported on October 19 that French unrest and fiscal concerns weighed on the euro, with the French–German bond spread widening. That backdrop creates a headwind for the chart’s projected EUR/USD recovery rather than confirming it.
Sterling reached a 17-month high against the euro but slipped against the dollar, according to Reuters. The distinction matters: strength against a troubled European currency does not establish broad pound strength. Britain’s October 28 budget remains an upcoming risk.
Australia: China Delivers a Modest Positive Surprise
China’s third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year on year, above the 4.4% forecast and 4.3% previous reading. Reuters linked Australian-dollar gains to the stronger Chinese result. The surprise improves the external-demand backdrop, without proving that Australia’s domestic policy outlook has changed.
Elliott Wave Analysis
AUD/USD: The Fifth-Wave Decline Has a New Endpoint
The October 19 four-hour chart, timestamped 12:27:41 New York, shows 0.69775. The revised labelling places wave 3 at 0.69037, wave 4 at 0.70149 and wave 5 at 0.68941. Wave 4 contains an A–B–C correction, with a diagonal-shaped five-part C leg.
Compared with October 16, price has broken the old 0.69037 low and rebounded. The new count treats that decline as completed rather than projecting another immediate fifth-wave extension.
The blue path allows a pullback toward approximately 0.6960 before recovery toward 0.7060–0.7070. Clearing 0.70149 would strengthen the reversal case. A break below 0.68941 invalidates the proposed completed-low scenario. The highlighted 0.6985–0.6990 area remains a nearby reference, not a confirmed breakout.
EUR/USD: A Deeper Pullback, With Invalidation Unchanged
EUR/USD reads 1.12085 at 12:24:46 New York. The five-part ending diagonal remains labelled (i)–(ii)–(iii)–(iv)–(v), completing the larger wave v at the marked 1.11129 invalidation level.
Since October 16, the pair has retreated from the recovery highs rather than extended toward the earlier upside projection. The updated path permits weakness toward roughly 1.1190 before an advance toward 1.1325–1.1330.
Reclaiming approximately 1.1250–1.1270 would strengthen the recovery interpretation. Losing 1.11129 would invalidate the completed-bottom count and require renewed bearish assessment. The present pullback alone has not crossed that boundary.
GBP/USD: Recovery Peak Gives Way to a Fibonacci Test
At 12:24:32 New York, GBP/USD stands at 1.33048. The earlier a–b–c–d–e triangle formed (iv), followed by (v) ending at 1.31372 and completing larger wave iii. The rebound subsequently reached 1.33718.
That advance approached, but did not reach, the October 16 target region of 1.3380–1.3390. The new projection now allows a deeper retracement toward the marked 61.8% area near 1.3227 before wave iv resumes higher.
A break above 1.33718 would support continuation toward approximately 1.3380–1.3390. Falling below 1.31372 would reject the assumption that the larger wave-iii low is complete. No detailed subdivision is supplied for the current pullback.
Market Outlook
The immediate test is whether these pullbacks preserve their respective lows and develop renewed upward momentum. Australian-dollar confirmation requires overcoming a clearly marked wave-4 peak; euro recovery must contend with French risk; sterling needs to distinguish dollar strength from its euro-cross gains. Projected support zones are decision areas, not direct trading instructions.
