Gold is trading around 4,165 after a pronounced decline from the 4,697 peak. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the daily structure continues to favor a bearish impulsive sequence, with price currently developing Wave 3 following the completion of the larger corrective Wave (C).
The current Gold Price Forecast remains bearish while the market holds below the Wave 2 high near 4,400. A sustained break beneath 4,100 would provide further confirmation that the downside sequence is extending, exposing the 4,000 area and potentially the previous swing low near 3,942.
The key structural resistance remains near 4,400. A decisive recovery above this level would weaken the present Wave 3 count and increase the probability of a deeper corrective rebound. A move above 4,500 would require a broader reassessment of the current wave structure.
Today’s U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI are also important volatility catalysts for XAU/USD, particularly through their potential influence on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.