- The S&P 500 chart favours a fifth-wave advance from 7,630.86.
- Nasdaq’s rebound remains labelled corrective (ii), with renewed downside projected afterward.
- Dow Jones may complete a final z advance before its larger corrective rebound ends.
Market News
Healthcare Leadership Supports the Recovery
Reuters reported that healthcare reached a record high and financials gained as US stocks advanced on October 20, alongside an oil retreat.
These reports describe an ongoing session, not closing returns or the supplied chart instruments. In particular, the Nasdaq Composite is different from NAS100. Their percentage changes and price levels should not be interchanged.
AI Sentiment and the Fed Remain Unresolved
Elice fell more than 30% on its Seoul trading debut, The Wall Street Journal reported. Its weak start illustrates continuing investor sensitivity around AI financing, but cannot by itself explain every US technology-stock move.
Reuters reported that SpaceX and Netflix results were due after Tuesday’s close, with Meta and Tesla scheduled Wednesday. Separately, its October 20 economist poll favoured an October Fed hold followed by a December increase. Earnings guidance and monetary expectations therefore remain separate tests of the recovery.
Elliott Wave Analysis
S&P 500: Wave iv Low Anchors the Bullish Scenario
The October 20 four-hour SPX500 chart, timestamped 13:10:41 New York, shows 7,743.80. The count places wave iii at 7,843.89, followed by an A–B–C correction ending wave iv at 7,630.86.
The final C leg contains five subdivisions, (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5). Price has recovered from that low, and the arrow projects wave v toward approximately 7,865–7,875, potentially completing the larger (v).
Reclaiming the recent 7,760–7,765 area would strengthen immediate momentum. A break above 7,843.89 would support a new fifth-wave high. Losing 7,630.86 invalidates the assumption that iv is complete at that low; the larger correction would require reassessment.
Nasdaq: Recovery Is Labelled Wave (ii)
NAS100 reads 29,628.03 at 13:10:18 New York. A five-wave i–ii–iii–iv–v decline from 31,400.63 ends at 29,066.22, completing (i). The initial i leg contains a diagonal-shaped five-part subdivision.
The rebound is projected as (ii), approaching approximately 30,250 before another decline toward 29,000 or slightly below. The arrow is a scenario, not confirmation that the next bearish wave has started.
Strength above the recent wave-iv area near 30,100–30,150 would support further recovery. A subsequent rejection and break below 29,066.22 would strengthen bearish continuation. Moving above 31,400.63 invalidates a second-wave recovery within this displayed bearish sequence.
Dow Jones: Final z Leg Could Extend the Rebound
US30 stands at 52,454 at 13:09:26 New York. After (w) ended at 50,508, the rising channel contains a w–x–y–x–z corrective combination. The latest x sits at the highlighted 51,814 support, while z is projected to complete the larger (x).
Holding 51,814 and clearing the recent 52,700–52,750 area would strengthen the final advance toward approximately 52,900–53,000. The subsequent arrow points toward roughly 50,800.
A break below 51,814 would challenge the assumption that z is already advancing and could signal an earlier downturn. The projected z endpoint is not a fixed invalidation level for the broader count; sustained strength beyond it would require reassessing the anticipated reversal.
Market Outlook
The rally does not produce a uniform technical signal. S&P 500 requires confirmation of a new high, whereas Nasdaq and Dow Jones need evidence distinguishing temporary recovery from durable trend improvement. Watch earnings reactions, oil’s effect on inflation expectations and whether the marked support levels survive renewed selling.
