Key Points
- Crude oil's bearish extension has accelerated, establishing a substantially lower price trough.
- Blue wave b is now labeled at the preceding rebound peak, followed by red waves 1, 2 and 3.
- A fourth-wave Fibonacci retracement could precede another decline.
Crude Oil Price: USOilSpot traded at $88.094 at 3:12 p.m. New York time, after reaching an intraday low of $86.587. The four-hour chart records an opening price of $96.007 and a session high of $96.318.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave Analysis
Oil's decline has accelerated beyond the structure described in the November 3 crude oil forecast, which anticipated a corrective recovery before renewed weakness.
The updated count places blue wave b at the intervening rebound peak. The subsequent selloff has developed through three labeled red waves, with wave 3 positioned at the latest trough.
Attention now shifts toward a projected red wave 4 recovery to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The blue path subsequently favors another bearish extension, although neither movement is confirmed.
Technical Analysis for November 4, 2026
- Trend: Bearish.
- Wave Structure: Red 3 provisionally complete; red 4 projected.
- Fibonacci: 38.2% retracement.
- Invalidation: $104.026.
- Next Move: Temporary recovery followed by potential downside.
Trader's Question: Does the latest low confirm wave 3 has ended?
Not conclusively. The count suggests a potential third-wave completion, but subsequent price action is required to validate the anticipated fourth-wave correction.