Key Points
- USOilSpot recorded a fresh daily low at 86.016, then rebounded; a red wave 4 retracement remains projected.
- XAGUSD reached 53.478 before retreating, with a corrective red wave 4 still under observation.
- The current invalidation levels are 97.890 for crude oil and 48.589 for silver.
The central development in this four-hour Elliott Wave review is crude oil's deeper decline. The November 5 USOilSpot chart records a low of 86.016, below the 86.587 trough documented in the November 4 crude oil analysis. At 4:18:50 p.m. New York time, the chart displayed 89.776, after a daily high of 90.139.
The Elliott Wave count places blue wave b at the earlier rebound high and red wave 3 at the subsequent trough. From there, the solid blue forecast path anticipates a temporary recovery within red wave 4 toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, followed by a possible further decline. Neither the completion of wave 4 nor the next downward leg is confirmed. The current bearish-scenario invalidation is 97.890, replacing the previously published 104.026 level.
Silver's four-hour chart describes a separate near-term sequence. XAGUSD registered a daily high of 53.478, surpassing the 52.461 continuation reference discussed in the November 4 silver analysis. Its displayed price was 51.830 at 4:18:40 p.m. New York time, with a daily low of 51.590.
The count retains purple wave (v), green wave C and red wave Y at the earlier structural low, while red wave 3 marks the recent advance. The forecast now traces a red wave 4 pullback toward 38.2% before a potential renewed rise. The chart labels 53.478 as the upside-continuation reference and 48.589 as invalidation; it does not provide a final numerical upside target.
Technical Outlook — H4
| Instrument | Projected sequence | Key condition |
|---|---|---|
| USOilSpot | Red wave 4 rebound toward 38.2%, then possible decline | Bearish invalidation: 97.890 |
| XAGUSD | Red wave 4 decline toward 38.2%, then possible rise | Upside reference: 53.478; invalidation: 48.589 |
Trader's Question: Does reaching a 38.2% retracement confirm that either fourth wave is complete?
Answer: No. The ratio identifies a possible corrective waypoint, not a confirmed reversal. Each instrument requires subsequent price action consistent with its own projected Elliott Wave sequence.
