Key Points
- USD/JPY maintains a bearish Elliott Wave outlook despite its latest corrective rebound.
- Blue waves i and ii are labeled following the purple wave 2 peak.
- The invalidation threshold has shifted lower to 158.350.
USDJPY Rate
USD/JPY was quoted at 157.863 at 11:00 a.m. New York time. The four-hour chart shows an opening rate of 157.583, with a daily high of 158.003 and low of 157.462.
USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis
The downside scenario established in the October 30 forex outlook remains the preferred interpretation, although the latest recovery has introduced a more developed internal wave structure.
Following the peak labeled purple wave 2, the chart identifies blue waves i and ii, suggesting the rebound may represent a temporary interruption within the developing bearish sequence.
The projected blue arrow anticipates another decline toward the previously identified 156.963 reference. However, the anticipated extension has not been confirmed by subsequent price action.
Technical Analysis for November 2, 2026
- Trend: Bearish outlook.
- Wave Structure: Purple 2 labeled; blue i and ii visible.
- Downside Reference: 156.963.
- Invalidation: 158.350, lowered from 158.604.
- Next Expected Move: Renewed downside.
Trader's Question: Does the rebound above the previous report's quoted rate invalidate the bearish outlook?
No. A higher snapshot price does not independently negate the wave count. The marked invalidation level, rather than the earlier quoted rate, governs the scenario.